2024 Forecast: Fewer Tropical Cyclones, Higher Temperatures in the Philippines Due to El Niño

The Philippines is projected to experience a below-average number of tropical cyclones in 2024, as well as warmer temperatures, due to the ongoing El Niño phenomenon, according to PAGASA, the state weather bureau. The country typically encounters 19 to 20 tropical cyclones annually, but for 2024, PAGASA forecasts only 13 to 19 cyclones. The first half of the year is expected to see about 2 to 5 cyclones, with an increase to 11 to 14 cyclones from July to December. This reduced number follows a year (2023) when only 11 tropical cyclones entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

El Niño, which began in 2023, has also led to drier conditions in some parts of the country. Most areas of Luzon and Visayas, Northern Mindanao, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, and the Zamboanga Peninsula are likely to experience significantly below-normal rainfall conditions. By the end of January, provinces such as Benguet, Kalinga, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Bataan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Cavite, and Palawan may face drought conditions.

Ana Liza Solis, PAGASA’s climate monitoring division chief, warned that 2024 might be one of the warmest years on record for the Philippines, with temperatures in some areas potentially exceeding 40 degrees Celsius. This statement aligns with a warning from Celeste Saulo, chief of the World Meteorological Organisation, who indicated that 2024 could be even hotter and more extreme than 2023, once the full impact of El Niño is realized.

To mitigate the impacts, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has ordered the restructuring of Task Force El Niño. The task force is responsible for ensuring adequate supplies of food, water, and energy, preparing for potential power losses, and safeguarding public safety from fire, heat-related illnesses, and the effects on agriculture due to the severe weather conditions​​​​.