Global Food Supplies in 2024 Facing Weather Challenges and Export Restrictions

Global food supplies are expected to encounter significant challenges in 2024, largely due to adverse weather conditions and restrictive export policies. Key insights into this situation include:

1. Increased Food Prices and Tighter Supplies: The rising costs of food in recent years have motivated farmers globally to boost the cultivation of cereals and oilseeds. However, consumers are likely to face restricted supplies into 2024, influenced by factors such as the El Nino weather pattern, export limitations, and heightened biofuel mandates​​.
2. Impact of El Nino on Asian Agriculture: The El Nino phenomenon, known for causing dry weather, is anticipated to persist into the first half of 2024. This condition is expected to jeopardize the production of rice, wheat, palm oil, and other agricultural products in key exporting and importing nations across Asia. As a result, a drop in Asian rice production is foreseen due to arid planting conditions and diminishing reservoir capacities​​.
3. India’s Export Restrictions and Wheat Production Woes: India, the leading global rice exporter, has already implemented export restrictions in response to reduced production caused by El Nino. Furthermore, India’s upcoming wheat harvest is threatened by moisture scarcity, potentially driving the country to import wheat for the first time in six years​​​​.
4. Australian Wheat Export Challenges: Australia, a major wheat exporter, faces the likelihood of planting crops in dry soil following intense heat that impacted yields. This situation might compel key buyers like China and Indonesia to turn to North American, European, and Black Sea region exporters for their wheat needs​​.
5. Reduced Global Wheat Exports: The overall wheat supply scenario for the 2023/24 crop year is expected to worsen compared to the previous season, attributed to anticipated lower exports from major producing countries​​.
6. South American Agricultural Prospects: In contrast, South American nations like Argentina are forecasted to experience increased production of corn, wheat, and soybeans in 2024. Argentina’s significant agricultural regions have benefitted from abundant rainfall, leading to promising crop conditions. However, dry weather in Brazil has led to lowered production estimates for soybeans and corn​​​​.
7. Palm Oil Production Decline and Price Risks: Expected declines in global palm oil production in 2024, due to the El Nino weather, are likely to support higher cooking oil prices. This decrease in output occurs amidst rising demand for palm oil-based biodiesel and cooking oil​​.