Philippines to Increase Rice Imports, Remains World’s Top Importer

The Philippines is set to further elevate its position as the leading rice importer globally in 2024, with projections by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicating an importation volume of 3.9 million metric tons (MT) of rice. This figure surpasses the earlier estimate of 3.8 million MT, with the adjustment attributed to the Philippines’ significant rice purchases from Vietnam.

A crucial factor in this increased importation is the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on Rice Trade Cooperation signed between the Philippines and Vietnam during President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.’s state visit to Hanoi in late January. Under this agreement, Vietnam commits to supplying the Philippine private sector with 1.5 to 2 million MT of white rice annually over five years at competitive prices.

The USDA’s report underscores the Philippines’ reliance on rice imports, highlighting recent transactions that include over 56,090.63 MT of rice, primarily from Vietnam. This trend continues despite the Philippines achieving a record-high rice production of 20.06 million MT in 2023.

The increase in rice importation is partly due to the anticipated challenges posed by El Niño, expected to persist through the first half of the year. However, optimistic views from the Agriculture Department suggest that the impact may be mitigated by better water management in dams, ensuring sufficient irrigation until May, and the higher rice production last year.

Despite these efforts, the USDA anticipates the Philippines will continue to outpace China in rice importation, with China’s imports projected at 2.3 million MT, down from an earlier estimate of 2.8 million MT. This adjustment reflects a weakening demand for foreign rice in China due to more competitive domestic prices.

The Philippine government remains committed to achieving rice self-sufficiency, with the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) expressing confidence in reaching this goal by 2028. In the meantime, measures are in place to maintain productivity and ensure an adequate rice supply through the first half of 2024, despite El Niño’s challenges.

However, the Department of Agriculture warns that rice prices may remain high until September 2024, influenced by El Niño’s global impact on rice supply and prices. The Philippine Statistics Authority also anticipates a rice inflation rate exceeding 20% until July, following a 14-year high of 22.6% in January.