Bitcoin Price ‘Near a Bottom’ as Hash Price Patterns Mirror Pre-2021 Bull Run

Recent analysis suggests Bitcoin may be approaching a price bottom, with current market conditions resembling those seen before the 2021 bull run. On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlighted in an August 30th blog post that Bitcoin’s hash price—representing the revenue miners earn per terahash per second—is at conspicuously low levels.

Historical Patterns Indicate Potential Bottom

CryptoQuant’s analysis shows a historical correlation between low hash prices and Bitcoin price bottoms. During previous market cycles, such as the period following the COVID-19-induced crash in 2020, Bitcoin prices reached significant lows when hash prices dropped sharply. As the market recovered, particularly after the Bitcoin halving event, prices surged to new all-time highs.

This pattern suggests that Bitcoin’s current hash price lows could precede another major price rebound, echoing the conditions that triggered the 2021 bull run.

Miner Behavior Suggests Potential Turnaround

Data from CryptoQuant also indicates a shift in miner behavior, supporting the idea of a price bottom. After a prolonged period of outflows, Bitcoin miners have started accumulating again, with miner reserves recovering to levels not seen since June. This trend has been particularly noticeable since August 24th.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, pointed out that “miner capitulation is nearly over, with hash rate nearing all-time highs.” This observation is supported by the Hash Ribbons indicator, which captures post-halving events. The data suggests that the cost of mining in the US is around $43,000 per Bitcoin, and if prices remain above this level, the hash rate is likely to stay stable, reinforcing the potential for price stabilization and recovery.

Future Outlook and Potential Surge Triggers

The timing of Bitcoin’s next significant price movement is a hot topic within the crypto community, with long-term metrics currently supporting a bullish narrative. A key factor to watch is the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which has historically preceded market surges.

In an August 21 X post, Ki Young Ju noted that past post-halving rallies typically began in the fourth quarter of each halving year. He suggested that significant market movements could be expected as the year-end approaches, driven by large investors, or “whales,” who may not allow a flat year-over-year performance in Q4.

Overall, while short-term market conditions remain uncertain, the current hash price lows, miner accumulation trends, and the forthcoming Bitcoin halving suggest a possible bullish scenario for Bitcoin in the near future.