Philippines’ National Debt Reaches P16 Trillion by End-October 2024

The Philippine government’s total outstanding debt surpassed the P16-trillion mark in October 2024, driven largely by the depreciation of the peso against the US dollar, according to data released by the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) on Tuesday.

Debt Breakdown

As of the end of October, the total outstanding debt stood at P16.020 trillion, reflecting:

• A 0.8% increase (P126.95 billion) from September’s P15.893 trillion.
• A 10.6% rise (P1.539 trillion) compared to October 2023’s P14.480 trillion.

“The increase was primarily driven by the valuation impact of peso depreciation against the US dollar,” the BTr said. The peso weakened to P58.198:$1 at the end of October from P56.017:$1 in September.

Domestic vs. External Debt

• Domestic Debt:
  • Totaled P10.889 trillion, a slight 0.4% decline (P46.42 billion) from the previous month.
  • The reduction was attributed to P52.65 billion in net redemption of government securities, partially offset by P6.23 billion in peso conversion of dollar-denominated debt.
• External Debt:
  • Increased by 3.5% (P173.37 billion) to P5.130 trillion.
  • Factors included P20.47 billion in net foreign loan availments and P152.90 billion from foreign exchange movements.
  • Peso depreciation alone boosted external debt by P193.00 billion, though this was partially offset by P40.10 billion from third-currency movements.

Guaranteed Obligations

Obligations guaranteed by the national government totaled P411.76 billion, rising by 10.4% (P38.90 billion) from the previous month.

• Domestic guarantees increased by P35.85 billion.
• Peso depreciation added P6.15 billion, offset slightly by P3.10 billion in third-currency-linked revaluations.

Outlook

Finance Secretary Ralph Recto previously warned that the country’s sovereign debt could balloon to P20 trillion by the end of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.’s term in 2028.

For 2024, the government’s borrowing program is set at P2.46 trillion, higher than 2023’s P2.207 trillion, as per Department of Budget and Management (DBM) data.