PH Rice Inflation Contracts for the First Time Since 2021

For the first time in nearly four years, rice inflation in the Philippines has contracted, signaling a positive shift for consumers amid declining global prices and reduced tariffs.

At a press conference on Wednesday, Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) chief National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa announced that rice posted a year-on-year deflation of -2.3% in January 2025, a sharp drop from the 0.8% increase recorded in December 2024. This marks the first rice deflation since December 2021’s -0.1%.

Factors Behind the Decline
The steady decline in rice prices began in August 2024 and aligns with the PSA’s projections, driven by base effects from rising prices that started in August 2023 and the lower rice import tariffs implemented in July 2024.

The reduction came under Executive Order No. 62, signed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in June 2024, slashing the tariff rate for imported rice from 35% to 15%.

Rice Prices at the National Level (January 2025):

• Regular milled: ₱48.25 per kilo (from ₱48.81 in Dec 2024 and ₱49.65 in Jan 2024)
• Well-milled: ₱54.14 per kilo (from ₱54.38 in Dec 2024 and ₱54.91 in Jan 2024)
• Special rice: ₱63.13 per kilo (from ₱63.24 in Dec 2024 and ₱63.90 in Jan 2024)

Breakdown of Deflation Rates:

• Regular milled rice: -1.1% month-on-month, -2.8% year-on-year
• Well-milled rice: -0.4% month-on-month, -1.4% year-on-year
• Special rice: -0.5% month-on-month, -1.2% year-on-year

Food Security Emergency Declared Despite Price Drop
Despite the declining prices, the Department of Agriculture (DA) declared a food security emergency for rice following recommendations from the National Price Coordinating Council (NPCC). The declaration was prompted by persistently high retail prices despite lowered production costs and tariffs.

The National Food Authority (NFA) will now sell buffer stocks to the public at ₱35 per kilo to further stabilize prices.

When asked if the food security emergency was still necessary given the recent deflation, Mapa stated, “Any action to reduce the price is always beneficial to our Filipino consumers.”

Government Response and Future Plans
National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan emphasized the government’s proactive approach, stating, “The DA, with the endorsement of the NPCC, has declared a food security emergency to allow the release and sale of rice buffer stocks from the NFA at lower prices in select Kadiwa ng Pangulo sites.”

Overall inflation for January remained steady at 2.9%, as other food items continued to rise in price following a series of typhoons last year. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) also noted that lower import tariffs on rice are a key factor in mitigating inflation risks.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. welcomed the news, calling the tariff reduction a step in the right direction. To further support price stability, the DA set a new maximum suggested retail price (MSRP) for imported rice at ₱55 per kilo, down from ₱58 per kilo.