MANILA, Philippines — Local palay (unhusked rice) production fell by 6.3 percent in the first quarter of 2026, totaling 4.4 million metric tons (MT). According to data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released on Wednesday, May 6, 2026, this marks the lowest first-quarter output for the country since 2020.
The decline is attributed to a combination of weather disruptions, irrigation damage, and soaring production costs.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. and other officials identified several critical factors that hampered the January–March harvest:
- Weather Legacy: The lingering impact of severe typhoons that struck late in 2025 disrupted the planting cycle for the early 2026 harvest.
- Irrigation Damage: Significant damage to the Upper Pampanga River Irrigation System (UPRIS)—reportedly caused by illegal quarrying—delayed planting for approximately 40,000 hectares in Central Luzon.
- Soaring Input Costs: The ongoing Middle East crisis has driven fuel prices to nearly ₱190 per liter in some areas, while fertilizer prices have spiked to over ₱2,800 per bag, discouraging farmers from intensive cultivation.
- Low Farmgate Prices: Depressed prices for palay during the late 2025 harvest season led many farmers to reduce their planted hectarage for the first quarter of 2026.
Despite the decline, three regions continued to provide the bulk of the national supply:
- Central Luzon: 18.8% share
- Western Visayas: 10.2% share
- Cagayan Valley: 9.6% share
With local production faltering, the Philippines has ramped up its rice imports to ensure stable domestic supply and prevent price spikes.
- Import Surge: The country imported 1.68 million MT of rice from January to April 2026, an 18.3% increase compared to the same period last year.
- Leading Source: Vietnam remains the primary supplier, accounting for 86.7% of total imports, followed by Thailand and Myanmar.
- Global Standing: The USDA projects that the Philippines will remain the world’s largest rice importer through 2027, with annual requirements potentially reaching 5.6 million MT.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) has officially abandoned its earlier hope of achieving a record-high 20.3 million MT output this year.
- Revised Forecast: The DA now expects a total output of approximately 18.8 million MT to 19.8 million MT, depending on the severity of the looming “Super El Niño” predicted for the second half of the year.
- Support Measures: The government has rolled out a ₱10-billion assistance package, including fuel subsidies and fertilizer vouchers, to cushion the impact on farmers as they prepare for the main planting season in June.
