DA Projects Increased Rice Stock Despite Weather Challenges

The Philippines is expected to close 2024 with an increased rice stock inventory, despite facing challenges from El Niño and La Niña weather phenomena, according to the Department of Agriculture (DA).

Significant Increase in Rice Stock

During the Kapihan sa Bagong Pilipinas forum in Quezon City, DA Assistant Secretary for Operations U-Nichols Manalo reported that the country is projected to end the year with 3.64 million metric tons (MT) of rice, nearly 95 days’ worth of supply. This marks a substantial increase from the 1.9 million MT rice stock recorded in December 2023.

As of May 2024, the total rice stock stood at 2.08 million MT, reflecting a 10.3% year-on-year increase. Of these stocks, 41.6% were held by households, 55.1% by commercial entities, and 3.3% by the National Food Authority (NFA).

Palay Production and Importation

Despite the positive outlook for rice stocks, palay production has faced setbacks. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported a decline in second-quarter palay production to 3.89 million MT from 4.25 million MT in the same period last year. First-quarter palay output also dropped by 1.96% to 4.69 million MT from 4.78 million MT last year due to El Niño.

However, DA Assistant Secretary Manalo affirmed the agency’s target of a 20.44 million MT palay harvest for the year. The DA plans to create a climate-smart map of rice areas likely to be affected by a potentially more destructive La Niña, using a location-specific evaluation strategy.

Economic Impact and Importation

El Niño has caused significant damage, with total losses as of June 6 amounting to P9.89 billion, affecting 441,801 MT of produce. Despite this, the anticipated higher rice stock can also be attributed to increased importation facilitated by reduced import tariff rates, now at 15% until 2028.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts that the Philippines will import 4.6 million MT of rice this year. DA Assistant Secretary and spokesperson Arnel de Mesa reported that as of early June, the country had already imported 2.2 million MT.