Extended El Niño Predicted to Persist Until Early 2024

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued an advisory forecasting the continuation of a strong El Niño weather pattern until February 2024. This climate phenomenon, characterized by significant changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, has been affecting global weather patterns.

El Niño, which began in July 2023, is expected to last through the March-April-May 2024 season, with a gradual transition to an ENSO-neutral state anticipated in the April-May-June period. This prolonged occurrence of El Niño is based on predictions by the majority of global climate models.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving these temperature changes. During El Niño, warmer ocean temperatures can lead to droughts in some regions and flooding in others, significantly impacting agriculture, water supply, and weather conditions.

In response to this extended El Niño phase, PAGASA has urged government agencies and the public to take necessary precautionary measures to mitigate potential adverse effects. This includes preparing for possible impacts on water availability, agricultural output, and general climate conditions across various regions.

The Philippine government, under the leadership of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., has also indicated plans to restructure the Task Force El Niño. This restructuring aims to develop more extensive measures to address and mitigate the effects of the El Niño phenomenon on the country.

As the nation braces for continued weather anomalies, it remains crucial for all sectors to stay informed and prepared for the varying impacts of this prolonged El Niño event.