James Check, lead analyst at blockchain data platform Glassnode, has voiced caution over the longevity of the Bitcoin treasury strategy, suggesting the trend may be nearing its peak as more firms rush to adopt it.
In a recent X post, Check said the window of opportunity for new companies jumping into Bitcoin treasury investments might already be closing. “My instinct is the Bitcoin treasury strategy has a far shorter lifespan than most expect,” he said, warning that for many recent entrants, “it could already be over.”
Check emphasized that early adopters like Michael Saylor’s Strategy—which reportedly holds nearly 600,000 BTC—have secured a strong position. But newer firms face increasing difficulty in standing out or sustaining investor interest. “Nobody wants the 50th Treasury company,” he said, highlighting the market’s growing demand for unique value propositions.
While Bitcoin has surged close to its all-time high, Check believes the market for corporate Bitcoin treasuries is becoming oversaturated. At least 21 new entities have added BTC to their holdings just in the past month, according to BitcoinTreasuries data.
Echoing Check’s concerns, Taproot Wizards co-founder Udi Wizardheimer said many startups are driven by short-term hype rather than long-term conviction. “They see easy money and have no idea what they’re doing,” he said, predicting weaker players could be acquired at discounts.
Skepticism is growing elsewhere too. A report by venture firm Breed warned that only a few treasury-focused companies may survive long term, as many face the risk of a “death spiral” where their stock value closely tracks their BTC assets. VanEck’s Matthew Sigel also flagged concerns over share dilution risks from aggressive at-the-market issuance strategies.
Adding legal pressure, Strategy now faces a class action lawsuit from Pomerantz LLP, alleging the firm misled investors about the risks and profitability of its Bitcoin strategy.
