IEA Cuts Global Oil Demand Forecast Amid Rising Trade War Fears

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has slashed its global oil demand forecast for 2025, citing heightened trade tensions and growing economic uncertainty.

In its latest monthly report released Tuesday, the Paris-based agency said demand growth is now projected at 730,000 barrels per day (bpd)—down by 300,000 bpd from its March estimate. The revision comes after a wave of trade tariff announcements in early April, which rattled oil markets following a relatively calm period.

Although President Donald Trump’s administration exempted oil, gas, and refined product imports from new tariffs, other levies have triggered concerns over inflation and potential recession, leading to a drop in crude prices to their lowest levels in four years.

“With tough trade negotiations looming during the 90-day pause on higher tariffs, global oil markets are set for a volatile stretch,” the IEA warned. “There’s significant uncertainty hanging over our demand forecasts for this year and next.”

Echoing the IEA’s outlook, the Saudi-led OPEC coalition also trimmed its 2025 oil demand forecast on Monday, revising it slightly to 1.3 million bpd.