Marcos Administration Upholds 2024-2028 GDP Growth Projections

The Marcos administration’s economic team has reaffirmed its medium-term GDP growth targets through 2028.

At a press briefing after the 188th Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) meeting on Thursday, Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman revealed the latest macroeconomic assumptions, growth targets, and fiscal plans for 2024-2028.

Growth Projections

For 2024, the DBCC forecasts a GDP growth rate of 6% to 7%. The growth estimate for 2025 is set at 6.5% to 7.5%, while for 2026 to 2028, the DBCC anticipates the economy will expand between 6.5% and 8%. These projections are consistent with the medium-term growth outlook presented by the DBCC in April.

Economic Strategies

“We are committed to implementing growth-enhancing strategies to mitigate these risks, such as sustaining government efforts to address inflation, promoting digitalization to improve efficiency in government spending, accelerating infrastructure development, expanding workforce skills development, and strengthening inter-industry supply chain linkages,” said Pangandaman.

“This growth trajectory puts us on the path to becoming an upper-middle-income economy in less than two years and reducing the poverty rate to single-digit levels by 2028,” she added.

Current Economic Performance

In the first quarter of 2024, the GDP grew by 5.7%, which is slower than the 6.4% growth rate recorded in the same period last year. Despite this slowdown, the Philippines led the ASEAN-6 countries, outperforming Indonesia (5.1%), Malaysia (4.2%), Singapore (2.7%), and Thailand (1.5%).

“This development brings us to an impressive 6.1% average growth rate since the administration took office—from the third quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2024,” Pangandaman noted.

Inflation and Exchange Rate

The DBCC expects the inflation rate to stabilize between 3% and 4% this year. “We are determined to achieve price stability and return to the target range of 2% to 4% from 2025 to 2028 through proactive monetary policy measures and targeted government interventions that address the primary drivers of inflation,” said Pangandaman.

“This includes implementing the new Comprehensive Tariff Program for 2024-2028 to improve the affordability of essential commodities amid rising global prices and the Food Stamp Program to mitigate the impact of elevated food prices on the poor and vulnerable sector,” she explained.

The DBCC also adjusted its peso-dollar exchange rate assumption for 2024 to P56 to P58 against the US dollar, up from the previous projection of P55 to P57. This rate is expected to stabilize at P55 to P58 against the US dollar for the remainder of the medium term, supported by increasing tourism receipts, growing BPO revenues, and robust overseas Filipino remittances.