NEDA: US Tariffs Offer Minimal Economic Boost for PH, Growth May Fall Short of 8% Target

The Philippines may see a slight economic benefit from the current US tariffs, but the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) emphasized that the impact will be minimal and likely insufficient to push growth to the upper end of its 2025 target.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, NEDA Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said simulations suggest that a 10% tariff on Southeast Asian exports and a 125% tariff on Chinese goods could result in a 1.5% increase in Philippine exports. However, since exports make up a relatively small portion of the country’s GDP, the overall economic boost would be less than 0.5%.

Under former US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” policy, a 17% reciprocal tariff was proposed on Philippine goods. But Trump recently announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries—excluding China—leaving nations like the Philippines facing only a baseline 10% tariff for now.

Balisacan stressed that, tariff or not, the Philippines must continue to improve productivity and competitiveness. “When opportunities come, we must be ready to seize them,” he said.

He added that uncertainties around global trade have prompted investors to delay decisions, making the original 8% growth target likely out of reach. Still, growth within the 6.0% to 7.0% range remains possible, especially with inflation cooling and interest rates stabilizing.

For Q1 2025, Balisacan said a 6.0% growth rate is still attainable, but consumer spending may soften in Q2 compared to previous election years, dampening overall momentum.