OPEC Increases Long-Term Oil Demand Forecast, Citing Growth in Developing Regions

OPEC has raised its long-term forecasts for global oil demand, driven by economic growth in developing regions such as India, Africa, and the Middle East, according to its 2024 World Oil Outlook. The organization now expects oil demand to reach 118.9 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045, 2.9 million bpd higher than last year’s estimate, and further increasing to 120.1 million bpd by 2050.

This outlook contrasts with other forecasts, such as BP’s, which predicts oil demand will peak in 2025 and drop to 75 million bpd by 2050. OPEC attributes its optimistic projections to slower adoption of electric vehicles and cleaner fuels, as well as resistance to ambitious clean energy targets.

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais emphasized that energy demand growth is centered in developing countries due to rising populations, expanding middle classes, and urbanization. He also called for increased investment in the oil sector, estimating the need for $17.4 trillion by 2050.

OPEC’s report also highlighted that, despite growth in electric vehicle adoption, more than 70% of vehicles globally will still be powered by combustion engines in 2050 due to challenges like electricity grid limitations, battery production, and access to critical minerals.