PH Economic Growth in Q4 Expected to Outpace Q3 — NEDA’s Balisacan

The Philippines’ economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 is projected to surpass the third quarter’s performance, bolstered by strong macroeconomic fundamentals despite the impact of consecutive cyclones, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said on Friday.

“We remain optimistic about the fourth quarter economic performance,” Balisacan stated during NEDA’s year-end press briefing in Mandaluyong City.

Growth Target Within Reach
Balisacan expressed confidence that the robust fourth-quarter growth would allow the country to hit its 6% to 7% annual GDP growth target, despite the year-to-date GDP growth of 5.8% being slightly below expectations.

Key Drivers of Growth
The anticipated economic improvement is attributed to:

• Holiday spending
• Stable commodity prices
• Strong remittance inflows
• A robust labor market

These positive factors are expected to offset challenges, including a decline in agricultural output caused by weather-related disasters. Agriculture remains a significant contributor to the economy, accounting for nearly 10% of GDP.

Economic Indicators

• Inflation: Averaged 3.3% from January to October 2024, within the government’s target range of 2% to 4%.
• Labor Market: Labor force participation increased to 65.7% (up from 64% last year), with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.7% (from 4.5% in September 2023).

Boost from Monetary Policy
Balisacan highlighted the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) decision to cut policy rates by 50 basis points and reduce reserve requirements, measures aimed at improving liquidity and stimulating private spending on consumer goods and infrastructure investments.

“This move will support economic growth by making borrowing more affordable for businesses and consumers,” Balisacan added.

With these positive trends, Balisacan reiterated his optimism about achieving the government’s growth goals for 2024.