Russian Experts Predict Bitcoin Bull Market Will Not Surpass 2017 Highs

A Comparative Analysis of Bitcoin’s Bull Markets In a recent report by the Roscongress Foundation, one of Russia’s prominent development-focused NGOs, Russian experts have expressed skepticism about the current Bitcoin bull market surpassing the highs of 2017. This report, released on May 20, highlights several key factors influencing Bitcoin’s market behavior and its future potential. Speculative Nature of the Recent Peak The report points to Bitcoin’s new all-time-high peak in March this year, attributing it to a “speculative game” linked to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Despite this spike, the growth has not sparked the same excitement or public interest as seen during the 2017 bull run. The authors note a significant decrease in global internet search queries related to cryptocurrencies, indicating a waning public interest compared to 2017 levels. Search Trends and Public Interest According to the report, search engine queries for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency topics in 2024 are only half of what they were in 2017. This decline in search interest reflects a broader trend of reduced public engagement and curiosity about cryptocurrencies, which can be a crucial driver for market momentum. Impact of Spot Bitcoin ETFs The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs was anticipated to democratize access to cryptocurrency investments, making it easier for a broader range of people to invest in digital assets. However, the report suggests that this anticipated accessibility has not yet materialized to the extent expected. The existing “mining-based transaction protocols of the Bitcoin network” pose challenges for full integration into the traditional financial system, limiting the broader adoption and utility of Bitcoin in mainstream finance. Bitcoin as a High-Risk Asset The report underscores that Bitcoin remains a “high-risk asset,” closely correlated with stock market movements rather than assets like gold, which are considered more stable. This classification aligns Bitcoin with other high-risk speculative assets, impacting its appeal to more conservative investors. Market Behavior and Speculative Play The experts also noted a “weak reaction” in the Bitcoin market to the April halving event, a historically significant event that typically influences Bitcoin’s price dynamics. This subdued response is attributed to the general market sentiment and the willingness of financial market participants to engage in high-risk investments. Long-Term Outlook for Bitcoin and ETFs While the report casts a cautious tone on the immediate prospects of Bitcoin’s price surge, it remains optimistic about the long-term impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs. The authors believe that over time, these ETFs will enhance accessibility to cryptocurrency investments, benefiting the market overall. However, they caution that recent price increases may have been driven more by speculative trading rather than fundamental market shifts. Diverse Price Forecasts The report highlights the wide range of Bitcoin price forecasts for the end of the year, with predictions ranging from a high of $121,764 to a low of $50,138. This wide disparity underscores the uncertainty and volatility that continue to characterize the cryptocurrency market. Influence of Stablecoins An interesting observation from the report is the role of stablecoins in influencing Bitcoin prices. The capitalization of stablecoins has grown significantly since 2017, contributing to Bitcoin bull markets in 2021 and 2024. The experts argue that the initial wave of Bitcoin price growth in 2017 was driven by the popularization of cryptocurrencies, while the subsequent increases in 2021 and 2024 were facilitated by the expanding supply of stablecoins and the shifting dynamics within the virtual currency market. Future Growth in Crypto Mining The report also touches on the growth potential of Bitcoin and altcoin mining. Russian experts predict a 20-40% increase in mining activities before the end of the year, driven by advancements in technology and increased interest in the crypto mining sector. Conclusion: A Cautious Yet Optimistic View In summary, the Roscongress Foundation’s report presents a cautious yet nuanced view of the current Bitcoin bull market. While acknowledging the speculative elements and challenges facing Bitcoin’s integration into traditional finance, the report remains hopeful about the long-term benefits of increased accessibility through spot Bitcoin ETFs. The evolving role of stablecoins and the potential growth in mining activities further add layers of complexity and opportunity to the cryptocurrency landscape. As the market continues to mature, these factors will play crucial roles in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory and its place within the broader financial ecosystem.