Singapore Raises 2024 Economic Forecast After Beating Q3 Projections

Singapore has upgraded its 2024 economic growth forecast after exceeding expectations in the third quarter, buoyed by robust demand from key trading partners.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) now predicts 3.5% growth in 2024, surpassing the previous estimate of 2.0–3.0%. The revised outlook marks the second upgrade this year, following an adjustment in August.

Q3 Performance Surpasses Expectations

The city-state’s economy grew 5.4% year-on-year in Q3, outperforming the preliminary estimate of 4.1% and economists’ projections of under 4.0%. The better-than-expected results pushed the average growth for the first nine months of the year to 3.8%.

“Growth in the third quarter was primarily driven by the manufacturing, wholesale trade, and finance and insurance sectors, which were bolstered in part by the upturn in the global electronics cycle,” the MTI said.

Key Drivers of Growth

• Manufacturing: A cornerstone of Singapore’s economy, the sector surged 11.0% year-on-year in Q3, reversing a 1.1% contraction in the previous quarter.
• Electronics Boom: Strong global demand for semiconductor chips, particularly for smartphones and personal computers, drove growth. This comes amid a rush for AI-linked technologies, though demand for automotive and industrial chips remained weak.
• Major Export Markets: Improved performances from export markets such as the United States, the eurozone, and some regional economies contributed to the positive outlook.

2025 Growth Outlook

While the 2024 outlook is optimistic, the MTI projects a more modest growth rate of 1.0–3.0% in 2025, citing rising global uncertainties. These include “uncertainty over the policies of the incoming US administration, with the risks tilted to the downside.”

Barometer of Global Trade

Singapore’s trade-dependent economy is often regarded as a reflection of global economic trends. The latest data underscores the recovery in global electronics and the resilience of international trade, even amid broader uncertainties.