Steno Research Predicts $15-20B Inflows into Ether Spot ETFs, Projects $6,500 Price Target

Steno Research anticipates that spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could see net inflows of up to $20 billion within the first year of launch, according to a recent report. The firm suggests that Ether’s appeal to Wall Street investors is strong, despite current market pessimism.

Significant Inflows Expected

Steno Research forecasts a net inflow between $15 billion and $20 billion into spot Ether ETFs in the first 12 months, even accounting for potential outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE). Senior analyst Mads Eberhardt stated, “This substantial influx of capital will drive up Ether’s value and position it favorably against Bitcoin.”

Price Target of $6,500

The report predicts Ether could reach a minimum price of $6,500 by the end of the year, driven by expected ETF inflows and positive market factors. The U.S. launch of spot Ether ETFs is imminent, following the SEC’s recent approval of issuers’ filings.

Market Impact

Steno Research suggests that if the projected inflows materialize, the ether/bitcoin ratio could strengthen to 0.065 by year-end. The report emphasizes that due to Ether’s lower market capitalization and liquidity compared to Bitcoin, even smaller inflows could significantly impact its value.

Varied Predictions

Other entities offer different predictions regarding spot Ether ETF inflows. Galaxy Research estimates $5 billion in net inflows within the first five months, while Bitwise Asset Manager anticipates $15 billion within the initial 18 months.

Potential Downside

Contrarily, Andrew Kang of Mechanism Capital warns that Ether’s price could drop to as low as $2,400 post-ETF launch. Kang attributes this to lesser institutional interest in Ether compared to Bitcoin and limited incentives for converting spot Ether into ETF form.

Revised Proposals

Several prominent asset managers, including VanEck, BlackRock, Grayscale, Invesco Galaxy Digital, and Fidelity, have submitted revised proposals for Ethereum ETFs to the SEC. VanEck’s filing disclosed a management fee of 0.20%, aligning with competitors like Franklin Templeton, which charges 0.19%.