What’s New with the GCQ

As we stand on the cusp of the incoming transition to General Community Quarantine (GCQ), confusion and anxiety about the future remain high. Beginning Monday on the 1st of June, movement in and out of the capital Metro Manila will be freed up, so long as social distancing and proper utilization of masks are followed. For a large number of the working population, workplaces are set to reopen, as are retail stores and some public transportation.

President Duterte said in a recent televised address that mortality rates are considered low, and that this is a transition to the “new normal”. Health Secretary Duque rationalized the shift to GCQ by describing the country’s Covid-19 cases as “mild”. Despite the statement of Duque, online sentiment has been markedly negative towards the efforts of the DOH and Secretary Duque over the handling of the pandemic. A recently retracted statement that the country was already in the midst of a second wave of infections drew the ire of netizens- a recent report by WR Numero stated that 96% of their survey respondents slammed Secretary Duque for this statement, while only half of the respondents trusted the DOH’s information.

In the middle of an unprecedented pandemic, access and transparency of data are critical to moving forward to a “new normal”. The recent announcement of a record-high number of cases in a single day sparked outrage from around the web. However, the DOH has since backtracked and clarified that the bulk of these new cases are, in fact, cases from days or weeks prior that have only been verified now.

While some readers may view this with suspicion, this statement lines up neatly with the existing Covid-19 validation process. This validation of reported data is a crucial aspect of monitoring active cases and ensures that public data is reliable and transparent. It is also important to note that generally, the capacity for the DOH to validate results is fixed, although attempts to increase capacity have been undertaken. With the recent uptick in deployed testing, the backlog of validation for the DOH has also considerably grown. If we step back and look at the data, we can actually see a trending decrease in the daily percentage of positive individuals over the total individuals tested daily.

In short? The data shows that the number of cases actually are decreasing, possibly a testament to the strict quarantine measures over the past few months. What does this mean moving forward? South Korea, hailed across the world as one of the best examples of Covid-19 response, has recently experienced a surge in positive cases, after quarantine measures were loosened. Sweden, initially hailed for trusting in their people to self-regulate, have steadily increased in both mortality rates and total number of cases. It seems that despite the overall reduction in cases, a transition to GCQ may simply result in another surge of cases.

For business owners, this is something to be extremely cognizant about. It may not be wise to stock up on perishable goods in preparation for “business as usual”, and projections should be kept at a conservative level. While economic activity may rise in the short term, expect the possibility of resuming to previous quarantine measures. It is unlikely that the first few weeks of GCQ will be indicative of what a “new normal” looks like. The safest option is to maintain the status quo; to continue working remotely and avoiding public contact. Keep safe, and keep informed.