MANILA, Philippines — Global ports giant International Container Terminal Services Inc. (ICTSI) is expected to maintain its growth trajectory despite the escalating conflict in the Middle East. According to a report by First Metro Securities Brokerage Corp. released on Monday, April 27, 2026, the Enrique Razon Jr.-led company has limited direct exposure to the war zone and has successfully implemented defensive financial measures.
While the brokerage projects a slight deceleration in earnings growth compared to 2025’s record-breaking performance, the overall outlook for the ports operator remains “robust.”
The primary concern regarding the conflict involves ICTSI’s operations in Iraq, yet analysts suggest the impact is contained:
- Revenue Contribution: The Basra Gateway Terminal in Iraq contributes only 4% to 5% of ICTSI’s total global revenue.
- Capacity Scope: Iraq accounts for approximately 2,000 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) of the company’s total attributable capacity of over 23,000 TEUs.
- Indefinite Closure: Although the Basra terminal remains closed due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, First Metro believes the firm’s diverse global portfolio will offset these localized losses.
Beyond direct terminal operations, the conflict has pressured global fuel prices, which represent a significant portion of ICTSI’s operating expenses (Opex).
- Cost Pressure: Fuel accounted for roughly 10% of Opex even before the recent price spikes.
- Protective Surcharges: To safeguard profit margins, ICTSI began implementing fuel surcharges on terminal services in mid-April 2026.
- Supply Outlook: Chairman Enrique Razon Jr. confirmed that fuel remains available, though he expressed caution regarding long-term supply stability if the regional conflict persists.
First Metro maintains a positive outlook on ICTSI’s financial health:
- Earnings Growth: Projected at 11.9% to 15.4% for the next two years. This follows a massive 23.3% net income surge in 2025, where the company earned $1.05 billion.
- Increased Capex: The company plans to raise its capital expenditures to $740 million in 2026, up from $650.44 million last year, focusing on capacity expansion.
- The 2030 Goal: ICTSI is aggressively pushing toward a target of 30 million TEUs in attributable capacity by 2030, a significant jump from its current 21 million TEUs.
First Metro noted that ICTSI is “built to weather rough seas,” backed by a strong cash position of approximately $1.1 billion as of the end of 2025. The brokerage emphasized that the company’s strong pricing power and operational efficiency provide a critical buffer against macroeconomic shocks, provided that global trade disruptions do not become severely prolonged.
