MANILA, Philippines — Filipino motorists can expect a split in pump prices next week as global oil markets continue to fluctuate. Based on industry estimates from the first four days of trading, gasoline prices are projected to increase on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, while diesel and kerosene prices are expected to see significant rollbacks.
The Department of Energy (DOE) and local oil firms have indicated that the price movements reflect the recent volatility in the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), which was heavily influenced by unexpected shifts in U.S. crude inventories.
Industry sources provided the following estimated ranges for next week’s price changes:
- Gasoline: Increase of ₱0.35 to ₱0.65 per liter.
- Diesel: Decrease of ₱1.00 to ₱1.30 per liter.
- Kerosene: Decrease of ₱1.15 to ₱1.45 per liter.
If these projections hold, this would mark the second consecutive week of rollbacks for diesel and kerosene, providing continued relief for the transport and aviation sectors. Conversely, this would be the second straight week of hikes for gasoline.
The Department of Energy (DOE) Oil Industry Management Bureau cited several key factors driving the mixed movement:
- Surplus in Gasoil: Global diesel and kerosene markets are currently seeing a surplus, which has put downward pressure on regional benchmarks.
- U.S. Crude Inventories: A surprise 4.5-million-barrel increase in U.S. crude stocks initially sent global oil prices lower, particularly affecting the diesel segment.
- Refinery Activity: Increased refining capacity in Southeast Asia has led to a tighter supply for premium gasoline varieties, even as stocks for other fuels remain high.
The upcoming adjustment follows a significant period of price hikes throughout the first quarter of the year.
| Fuel Type | Total Net Increase (as of May 5, 2026) |
| Gasoline | ₱10.55 per liter |
| Diesel | ₱1.30 per liter |
| Kerosene | ₱1.05 per liter (net decrease) |
The DOE continues to monitor the impact of these changes on regional hubs. In Metro Manila, the price of gasoline currently ranges from ₱58.85 to ₱87.10 per liter, depending on the octane rating and location.
In the provinces, specifically in areas like Batangas and Quezon, the 24-hour spike in Taal Volcano’s sulfur dioxide emissions has yet to impact fuel logistics, but local authorities have urged motorists to stay alert for potential road closures or ashfall-related hazards that could affect delivery schedules.
