PARIS, France — The global aviation industry is bracing for a potential fuel crisis, with the head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) warning that authorities must prepare “well-coordinated plans” for jet-fuel rationing.
The warning, issued on Friday, April 17, 2026, comes as the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a “sobering” assessment suggesting that aircraft fuel supplies in Europe could start running dry within six weeks if the supply chain remains disrupted.
The current aviation fuel shortage is a direct consequence of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, specifically the effective blockage of the Strait of Hormuz since late February.
- Asia and Europe at Risk: While the crisis is currently most acute in parts of Asia, where flight cancellations have already begun, Europe is expected to see a significant impact by the end of May.
- Strait of Hormuz Uncertainty: Although Iran’s foreign minister recently indicated the reopening of the strait to commercial traffic, shipping companies remain cautious, and IATA notes that the backlog and risk remain high.
- Flight Cancellations: IATA Director General Willie Walsh stated that without intervention, “systemic” flight cuts could begin in the coming weeks, threatening to disrupt global summer travel plans.
In the Philippines, major airlines have been monitoring the situation closely since President Marcos declared a National Energy Emergency in March:
- Philippine Airlines (PAL): The flag carrier recently assured travelers it has secured sufficient jet fuel for its long-haul operations, particularly for North American routes, through the end of June.
- Cebu Pacific: The budget carrier has taken a more proactive approach to conservation, recently announcing temporary network adjustments and frequency reductions on select international routes (including Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, and Sydney) to manage surge-priced fuel stocks.
- Fuel Surcharges: The Civil Aeronautics Board recently authorized a significant increase in fuel surcharges—more than double the rates seen in early 2026—to help airlines cope with jet fuel prices that have soared to nearly $200 per barrel.
The European Union’s energy commissioner, Dan Jorgensen, has suggested that EU countries might begin sharing jet fuel reserves to cushion the impact of a lengthy crisis. IATA is advocating for similar coordinated strategies globally to ensure that “essential” travel and cargo routes are prioritized if rationing becomes mandatory.
As the industry navigates what many are calling the “greatest global energy security challenge in history,” travelers are advised to expect continued volatility in ticket prices and potential last-minute schedule changes. While local carriers currently have reserves to last through April and May, the long-term stability of the sector remains tied to the resolution of the geopolitical crisis in the Gulf.
